Soaring Seagulls – Comparing 2014 and 2015 chances

There are just two games left in the Victorian Football League home and away season. Those two games could see Williamstown finish anywhere between 1st and 7th. After five straight preliminary finals appearances are the Seagulls ready to win their first premiership in twelve years? The numbers from this time last year and the current group add insight into the debate.

2014 (after 18 rounds) – Record: 12-4 / Percentage: 138.46% / Scoring: 234 goals 216 behinds / Longest streak: 5 game win streak / Longest streak: 4 X 1 game losing streaks / Average score for: 101.25 / Average score against: 73.12.

Many VFL experts tipped a tough year for the Seagulls. Their first year after the split from the Western Bulldogs, a relatively small forward line and a lack of depth were highlighted as the key issues. Through 18 rounds and heading into the finals the Seagulls had shown that they were genuine contenders who could match it with anyone if they were given the chance.

Big wins over Footscray, Collingwood and Richmond in the first month of the season set the Seagulls up for a season where they wouldn’t lose two games in a row.

Their four losses were spread over the first two-thirds of the season, enabling the Seagulls to enter the finals on a five Seagulls logogame tear, where they would ultimately lose two of three games, bowing out with a devastating seven point loss to the Box Hill Hawks.

Ben Jolley, Adam Marcon and Kane Lambert were the lynchpins for Williamstown as they pushed towards a top four berth, eventually finishing third on percentage after Footscray beat Richmond after the siren at Punt Road in their final home and away clash.

2015 (after 18 rounds) – Record: 12-4 / Percentage: 142.77% / Scoring: 228 goals 241 behinds /  Longest streak: 5 game win streak / Longest streak: 2 game losing streak / Average score for: 100.56 / Average score against 70.43.

Kane Lambert was off to Richmond and mixed feelings were prominent by the bay. On one hand Lambert had reached his dream of being drafted by an AFL outfit, on the other – who could possibly replace the speedy goal-sneak? Since I’m asking the question the answer is Anthony Anastasio (and also really obvious).

Three straight wins before a pair of two point losses to Port Melbourne and Werribee showed yet again that the Seagulls were going to be a force to be reckoned with. Since then the Seagulls are undefeated on the road, with a narrow loss to Footscray and a hammering against  Hawthorn, sorry, Box Hill, the only other blemishes on an otherwise commanding season.

The 2015 Seagulls have offered a great variety. While Jolley and Marcon have been important the likes of Dunell, Bese, Carr, Carr, Lockwood and Banner and Critchley are making up the bulk of the BOG every week. That’s why opponents need to be scared, you can shut down one guy but someone else will pop up and do their job (see Anastasio against Collingwood or Dunell against Casey).

The Seagulls have won six of their last seven and nine of their last eleven. With a very winnable fixture against Werribee on Saturday and a potential Minor Premiership deciding clash against Box Hill remaining, it is feasible that the Seagulls enter the finals winning eleven from thirteen.

The Verdict – The numbers and the stories of the respective seasons are near identical. So which year has more potential? You don’t need to mention any more than the words “Box Hill” to get most Williamstown fans fired up, so it’s fitting that a trip to the City Oval is where the Seagulls end one phase of their 2015 journey.

If you ask Andy Collins I don’t think he’d give too much away, it’s not who he is. Rather than who he is, it is valuable to think about what Collins is – a year more experienced. He’s had the chance to find and craft players into the system and the record speaks for itself.

The numbers say that the two years are the same as I write, but numbers can lie. Four losses this year? Three of those have been by a combined total of fifteen points. That’s a number that is impossible to ignore. The Seagulls don’t lose heavily (even in 2014 the biggest loss was 27 points), so if you aren’t switched on for the entire four quarters you’re going to pay the price.

The 2014 side were good enough to win the flag.

The 2015 side are good enough to win the flag.

The current crop have the extra touch of calmness under pressure that was missing in 2014 which leads me to the following conclusion (after a great deal of research).

The 2015 side are going to go at least one step further than the 2014 team.

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One thought on “Soaring Seagulls – Comparing 2014 and 2015 chances

  1. Very good article. Carn the Towners!

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